'Europe's latest PMI price index shows inflation may track from the current 6% to near 2% during the next 6 months. 'The Cardboard Box Recession may be good news for inflation,' Kleintop said, pointing to positive inflation trends in Europe. Investors could also see muted stock returns, especially if weakness spreads to other sectors, like services.īut the downturn could also have the silver lining of softening inflation, as manufacturing prices in the Purchasing Manager's Index - which includes the prices of cardboard box - typically leads inflation in the US by about six months. While recessions are officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kleintop said the economy was currently in a 'Cardboard Box Recession,' which could bring on a weaker job market and more earnings pressure for corporations. According to the Fibre Box Association, that's led to a drop in cardboard box demand – an overlooked recession indicator that has preceded previous downturns for the US economy.

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